Europe: Further rallies and security alerts related to the Israel-Hamas conflict are likely across the region through late May /update 15

Protests and demonstrations in response to the Israel-Hamas conflict are likely to continue in major cities across Europe through at least late May. Additionally, increased security measures in response to a perceived increased terrorism threat in connection with the conflict will also continue. May 1 demonstrations will likely see the participation of activists protesting the oncoming conflict in the Middle East.

Protest Activity
Demonstrations demanding a ceasefire or openly supporting pro-Israel and pro-Palestinian positions will likely continue to take place in cities across the region as the conflict in the Middle East continues. Public unrest is likely prompted by several circumstances. These include political or conflict developments, conflict-related high-casualty incidents, humanitarian pauses, diplomatic efforts, and trial proceedings at the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court. The death of European nationals participating in humanitarian operations in Gaza could also prompt demonstrations in Europe's major cities. Related demonstrations continue to attract tens of thousands of participants, including in the UK, France, and Germany's major cities.

Further demonstrations will likely continue to occur in public squares, city centers, government buildings, major transport hubs, mosques and Islamic cultural centers, synagogues, Palestinian diplomatic offices, and Israeli embassies or consulates. In France, demonstrations and sit-ins occurred in universities. Protesters in Denmark and the UK have targeted defense industry companies with links to Israel. Occasionally, protests also occurred near major broadcasting facilities. In Turkiye and Cyprus, demonstrations have taken place near US and UK military bases, respectively. Protests have also taken place at Western franchise restaurants in Turkiye and the UK, which are perceived to have links with Israel. These protests may spread to other countries in the region. Tight security typically accompanies related demonstrations. Clashes between rival groups of demonstrators or between demonstrators and law enforcement officers are possible. Localized road travel delays are likely near any protests that materialize.

Heightened Security
German authorities are reportedly increasing police presence in major cities ahead of the May 1 events. Possible violent protests in relation to the conflict are likely to occur. French authorities are implementing heightened security near synagogues and Jewish schools nationwide in response to increased tensions between Israel and Iran. Enhanced security measures will likely remain in place at synagogues and Jewish schools across France through at least early June.

Security incidents, including terrorist attacks, targeted arson, and other security threats, will likely continue to prompt national authorities to review security alert levels. The governments of Austria, France, the Netherlands, and Portugal have raised their terrorism threat warning levels, while authorities in Spain and Italy have increased security. France continues to maintain its terrorism threat level since a knife attack in October 2023 and again on March 25, following the Islamic State (IS) revindication of the March 22 terrorist attack in Moscow. Authorities in France, Germany, and the UK report significant increases in antisemitic and Islamophobic crimes, including verbal abuse and vandalism.

Authorities will likely maintain elevated security across Europe until the threat is assessed as diminished. Law enforcement personnel will likely continue to be deployed near sensitive sites and potential targets, including government offices, synagogues and mosques, and Israeli, Palestinian, Jewish, and Islamic interests. Security-related disruptions are possible for international arrivals at airports, maritime ports, and land border crossings. The following countries across the Schengen Border Code zone have temporarily reintroduced heightened border security in response to the region-wide elevated terrorist threat: Austria, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Slovenia, and Sweden.

Security incidents will likely remain at an elevated frequency across the region amid the Israel-Hamas conflict. Responses to potential security incidents, including suspicious packages and bomb threats, will likely be enhanced throughout the region in the coming weeks as a precaution. Precautionary security force reactions, including evacuations and search operations, will likely prompt short notice and short-term business and public transport disruptions. Additional security procedures may disrupt organized gatherings such as conferences, religious and public commemorations, and sporting and other cultural events.